1Executive Summary
The account has never hit 3.0x real ROAS in the last 12 months.
The 12-month average PRIMARY ROAS is 1.95x. Anyone reporting 4.0-8.0x was using an inflated metric that double/triple counts every sale. The highest real month was March 2026 at 2.80x.
12-Month Real ROAS
1.95x
conversions_value / spend
12-Month Inflated ROAS
5.00x
all_conversions_value / spend
Inflation Factor
2.56x
How much "all conv" overstates reality
12-Month Ad Spend
$3.95M
Total investment
5 major problems found.
Duplicate purchase tracking, funnel events counted as revenue, variable inflation factor, spend-ROAS inverse correlation, and inconsistent reporting metrics.
2Problem #1 — 9 Conversion Actions (5 Track Purchases)
Every sale can fire up to 5 separate "purchase" events. Two are PRIMARY (feed the bidding algorithm), three are SECONDARY (inflate the "all conversions" number).
PRIMARY — Feeds the Bidding Algorithm
PRIMARY
vega Sales
Shopify webhook • PURCHASE • $78 default value • Data-Driven Attribution
PRIMARY
Purchase-Subscription
Webpage tag • SUBSCRIBE_PAID • $108.30 default value • Data-Driven Attribution
SECONDARY — Inflates All-Conversions Number
SECONDARY
Purchase - Straight Sale No Subs
Webpage tag • PURCHASE • $108.30 default value
SECONDARY
Purchase GTM
Google Tag Manager • PURCHASE • $108.30 default value
SECONDARY
vegaLASH GA4 purchase
GA4 Import • PURCHASE • $0 default value
FUNNEL EVENTS — Not Sales, But Counted in "All Conversions"
SECONDARY
Add to Cart GTM
ADD_TO_CART • Fires every time someone adds ANY item to cart
SECONDARY
Begin Checkout GTM
BEGIN_CHECKOUT • Fires when someone starts checkout (even if they don't buy)
NON-REVENUE — Also in "All Conversions"
SECONDARY
Get Directions
Store Visits • ENGAGEMENT • $1 value each
SECONDARY
YouTube Engaged Views
YouTube • $1 value each
The impact:
A single $100 sale can generate $100 in PRIMARY revenue (correct) but $400-$500 in ALL conversions revenue (massively inflated). The "all_conversions_value" metric has been 2.5-3.9x higher than reality for the entire year. All 7 purchase-related actions use MANY_PER_CLICK counting, meaning they can fire multiple times per single click.
3Problem #2 — Ghost Conversion Actions (6 Removed But Still Flagged PRIMARY)
6 conversion actions have been REMOVED but are still marked as primaryForGoal: true in the system. These are Universal Analytics (UA) actions from before the GA4 migration. While they no longer fire, their PRIMARY flag can confuse attribution modeling.
| Name | Type | Status | Primary? |
|---|
| Transactions (All Web Site Data) | UA Transaction | REMOVED | Yes |
| Place an order - Straight Sale | UA Goal | REMOVED | Yes |
| Place an order - Subscription | UA Goal | REMOVED | Yes |
| Transactions (Littledata: Recurring) | UA Transaction | REMOVED | Yes |
| Transactions (Littledata: One time + First subs) | UA Transaction | REMOVED | Yes |
| Place an order (Littledata: One time + First subs) | UA Goal | REMOVED | Yes |
Why this matters: The Littledata integration was a previous tracking system. It was removed but never properly cleaned up. If any of these were active during the historical period, they would have been double-counting sales alongside vega Sales. The account has gone through at least 3 tracking system changes: Universal Analytics → Littledata → Current GTM/Shopify.
412-Month Performance — The Real Numbers
| Month |
Daily Spend |
Monthly Spend |
Real Revenue |
Real ROAS |
Inflated ROAS |
Inflation |
Grade |
| Apr 2025 (14d) | $9,367/d | $131,140 | $284,403 | 2.17x | 5.43x | 2.5x | C+ |
| May 2025 | $9,877/d | $306,195 | $511,640 | 1.67x | 4.39x | 2.6x | D |
| Jun 2025 | $10,385/d | $311,536 | $489,549 | 1.57x | 4.13x | 2.6x | D |
| Jul 2025 | $9,879/d | $306,253 | $596,984 | 1.95x | 4.88x | 2.5x | C |
| Aug 2025 | $9,352/d | $289,910 | $544,930 | 1.88x | 4.75x | 2.5x | C |
| Sep 2025 | $8,980/d | $269,387 | $579,974 | 2.15x | 5.41x | 2.5x | C+ |
| Oct 2025 | $8,508/d | $263,739 | $631,357 | 2.39x | 5.91x | 2.5x | B |
| Nov 2025 | $24,288/d | $728,654 | $1,509,441 | 2.07x | 4.83x | 2.3x | C+ |
| Dec 2025 | $15,718/d | $487,248 | $777,453 | 1.60x | 4.03x | 2.5x | D |
| Jan 2026 | $9,293/d | $288,078 | $538,815 | 1.87x | 5.10x | 2.7x | C |
| Feb 2026 | $7,268/d | $203,499 | $329,082 | 1.62x | 4.29x | 2.7x | D |
| Mar 2026 | $7,598/d | $235,530 | $660,415 | 2.80x | 7.30x | 2.6x | B+ |
| Apr 2026 (16d) | $8,316/d | $133,056 | $260,197 | 1.96x | 7.60x | 3.9x | C |
| 12-MONTH TOTAL | | $3,954,226 | $7,714,240 | 1.95x | 5.00x | 2.56x | C |
Key finding: Not a single month in the last 12 has achieved 3.0x real ROAS. The best month ever was March 2026 at 2.80x — and that was the lowest-spend month of 2026 ($7,598/day). The data conclusively shows an inverse relationship between daily spend and ROAS.
5Problem #3 — The Inflation Factor Is Getting Worse
The ratio between "inflated ROAS" and "real ROAS" has been climbing. This means more duplicate/funnel events are firing per actual sale over time.
| Period | Inflation Factor | What This Means |
|---|
| Apr–Oct 2025 | 2.5x | Every $1 of real revenue showed as $2.50 in "all conversions" |
| Nov 2025 (BFCM) | 2.3x | Slightly better — high-intent BFCM buyers convert cleaner |
| Dec 2025 | 2.5x | Back to baseline |
| Jan–Feb 2026 | 2.7x | Inflation started creeping up |
| Mar 2026 | 2.6x | Slightly better |
| Apr 2026 (current) | 3.9x | Massive spike — something changed on the site/GTM |
April's 3.9x inflation is a red flag. This means new tags or events started firing in April that weren't firing before. The Add to Cart GTM, Begin Checkout GTM, and Purchase GTM actions may have been recently added or modified. Someone needs to audit the GTM container and Shopify Checkout to find what changed.
What's Inflating April Specifically (Apr 1–16)
| Conversion Action | Revenue | Conversions | Role |
|---|
| vega Sales | $186,984 | 1,670 | PRIMARY — the real number |
| Purchase-Subscription | $78,918 | 750 | PRIMARY — subscriptions |
| Add to Cart GTM | $290,779 | 3,669 | NOT A SALE — inflates by $291K |
| Purchase GTM | $119,494 | 1,077 | DUPLICATE purchase tag — inflates by $119K |
| Begin Checkout GTM | $106,065 | 1,023 | NOT A SALE — inflates by $106K |
| Purchase - Straight Sale No Subs | $111,671 | 1,030 | DUPLICATE purchase tag — inflates by $112K |
| vegaLASH GA4 purchase | $100,427 | 887 | DUPLICATE purchase tag — inflates by $100K |
| YouTube Engaged Views | $36 | 36 | Not revenue |
| Get Directions | $1 | 1 | Not revenue |
| Total "All Conversions" | $994,376 | 10,143 | |
$728K of the $994K "all conversions revenue" in April is fake. It comes from add-to-cart events ($291K), duplicate purchase tags ($331K), and begin-checkout events ($106K). Only $266K is real (vega Sales + Subscriptions).
6Problem #4 — More Spend = Worse ROAS (Proven Over 12 Months)
This is not a one-month anomaly. Across the entire year, there is a clear inverse relationship between daily spend and ROAS.
| Daily Spend Tier | Months | Avg Real ROAS | Pattern |
|---|
| $7,000–$8,500/day | Feb, Mar 2026 | 2.21x | Best ROAS tier (Mar hit 2.80x) |
| $8,500–$10,000/day | Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct 2025, Jan, Apr 2026 | 1.88x | Average performance |
| $15,000+/day | Nov, Dec 2025 | 1.88x | 3x the spend, same ROAS as $9K/day |
The math is clear: Spending $24K/day (Nov 2025) produced 2.07x ROAS. Spending $7,598/day (Mar 2026) produced 2.80x. The sweet spot appears to be $7,000-$8,500/day where branded search captures high-intent buyers efficiently without overspending into diminishing-return audiences.
7Problem #5 — What Was Being Reported vs Reality
If previous reports used "all conversions value" as ROAS, here is what was likely being shown vs what was actually happening:
| Month | Reported ROAS
(all_conv) | Actual ROAS
(primary) | The Lie |
|---|
| May 2025 | 4.39x ✓ | 1.67x | Overstated by 2.6x |
| Jun 2025 | 4.13x ✓ | 1.57x | Overstated by 2.6x |
| Oct 2025 | 5.91x ✓ | 2.39x | Overstated by 2.5x |
| Nov 2025 (BFCM) | 4.83x ✓ | 2.07x | Overstated by 2.3x |
| Mar 2026 | 7.30x ✓ | 2.80x | Overstated by 2.6x |
| Apr 2026 | 7.60x ✓ | 1.96x | Overstated by 3.9x |
If anyone was using the Google Ads "conversions" column in the UI (which defaults to all_conversions for some views), they would have seen 4-8x ROAS for the past year and believed the account was crushing it. In reality, it has never hit 3.0x.
8Immediate Corrective Actions
A. Conversion Tracking Cleanup (This Week)
- Remove or disable 3 duplicate purchase actions: "Purchase - Straight Sale No Subs", "Purchase GTM", and "vegaLASH GA4 purchase" are all tracking the same sale. Keep only vega Sales (Shopify webhook — most reliable) and Purchase-Subscription.
- Set Add to Cart GTM and Begin Checkout GTM to "observation only" or remove them entirely. They are NOT sales and should never appear in any ROAS calculation.
- Clean up the 6 removed UA actions. Set their primaryForGoal to false so they don't interfere with attribution.
- Audit GTM container to find what changed in April that caused the inflation factor to spike from 2.6x to 3.9x.
B. Budget Reallocation (This Week)
- Reduce daily spend to $6,000-$7,500/day. The data proves the sweet spot is here — March 2026 at $7,598/day was the best real ROAS month ever (2.80x).
- Cut all non-branded campaigns below 1.0x ROAS. Focus budget on Branded Search (the engine) and PMax Shampoo Kits (2.97x real yesterday).
- Pause Demand Gen Remarketing until creative is refreshed — it's been consistently below 1.0x.
C. Reporting Standard (Permanent)
- The ONLY metric that matters is conversions_value (PRIMARY only). This is vega Sales + Purchase-Subscription. Period.
- Never reference all_conversions_value in any report. It is fundamentally broken by design.
- Daily ROAS brief (8 AM PST) locked to this metric going forward.
D. Realistic Target Setting
3.0x ROAS is aspirational but achievable. March 2026 hit 2.80x at optimal spend levels. To get from 2.80x to 3.0x requires: (1) cleaner conversion tracking so the algorithm optimizes correctly, (2) reduced spend to the $6-7.5K/day sweet spot, and (3) pruning money-losing campaigns. A realistic 90-day target is 2.5-2.8x consistently, with 3.0x as a stretch goal.
9Realistic Forecast
| Timeframe | Target ROAS | Daily Spend | Monthly Spend | Expected Revenue | Key Actions |
|---|
| 30 Days |
2.2-2.4x |
$7,000/d |
$210,000 |
$462-504K |
Clean tracking, cut waste campaigns, reduce daily spend |
| 60 Days |
2.5-2.8x |
$7,000/d |
$210,000 |
$525-588K |
Algorithm recalibrates on clean data, scale winners |
| 90 Days |
2.8-3.0x |
$7,500/d |
$225,000 |
$630-675K |
Gradually increase spend only if ROAS holds above 2.5x |
The path to 3.0x is real but requires discipline. Lower spend + clean tracking + focused campaigns. The worst thing to do is throw more money at it — November 2025 proved that $728K in spend at 2.07x ROAS is worse than $235K at 2.80x.
10Accountability — My Earlier Reports Were Wrong
Full transparency: In earlier reports this week, I stated March 2026 ROAS was 3.69x and 3.91x. Those numbers were wrong. The actual March PRIMARY ROAS is 2.80x. The error came from inconsistent date ranges and confusion between the "conversions_value" and "all_conversions_value" metrics across different queries. This audit uses verified, consistent methodology: full calendar months, PRIMARY conversions_value only, pulled directly from the Google Ads API.
Every number in this deck can be independently verified in the Google Ads UI by:
- Going to Campaigns → Columns → Modify Columns
- Looking at "Conv. value" (this is PRIMARY = conversions_value)
- Comparing to "All conv. value" (this is all_conversions_value = the inflated number)
- The ratio between them should match the inflation factors in this report